Mazarr, Michael J.
GLOBAL TRENDS 2005: An Owner's Manual for
the Next Decade. New York: St.
Martin's Press, 1999. Ursinus College
library: 303.49/M456.
Michael
J. Mazarr's basic argument "is that rapid
and accelerating advances in science and
technology—and the social, political, and
psychological changes that follow and complement
them—are transfiguring society, economy,
politics, and warfare in profound ways."
(2) This is a shift from "an industrial
age to a knowledge era." (2)
Major
themes in the book:
(1)
Paradox: "every trend or concept"
today "has an antithesis." (11)
(2)
A Blurring of Boundaries: "the new
sciences of complexity [e.g., chaos theory] remind us
that boundaries between problems and disciplines are
less important than the threads that connect
them." (12) Holistic views are in,
analytical reductionism is out.
(3)
Networks, Systems, and Holistic Thinking:
Interdependence is the key. "Business,
governments, and individuals are losing the capacity
for independent action, coming…to rely on the
contributions of others in society to achieve their
goals." (13)
(4)
Process Not Product; Becoming Not Being;
Experience Not Thing: "the knowledge
era reduces the emphasis on tangible things and
increases the emphasis on abstraction…."
(14)
(5)
The S-Curve: the sigmoid curve
represents the fundamental challenge: "to
recognize the inevitable downslope that accompanies
any progress and to prepare for it, to look 'ahead of
the curve' and get a new upswing going before the
last one falls into decay." (17) The curve
"corroborates the Whitehead thesis on the
transitional instabilities that attend the arrival of
any new era." (18)
(6)
Values and Responsibility: Needed in the
new era are values that are "not those either of
the 'left' or the 'right' but a new combination of
both." (19)
(7)
Perception Increasingly Equals Reality:
"how people perceive issues becomes at least as
important as the objective facts about those
issues." (19-20.) So, "we risk losing
touch…with reality itself." [Whatever
that is presumed to be.]
(8)
Change is Costly: Whitehead said
"that major social transformations are immensely
disruptive for the societies in which they
occur." (20) Mazaar thinks that a reform
of capitalism will result from this costliness to
"help ensure that it leaves in the wake of its
creative destruction only the hulks of outmoded
practices rather than masses of dispossessed people
and ruined natural environment." (21)
[lotsaluck]
(9)
An Age of Empowerment: the knowledge era
empowers individuals and groups against large
institutions such as governments and corporations
because it levels the playing field.
"Power and authority [in an information-rich
environment] become radically decentralized."
(21)
Mazarr
offers six major trends:
(1)
The Foundations: "a price spike
economy" and "a foundation of human
perception: culture." (25-70) Cultures
will profoundly influence market and other
developments and themselves will be influenced by
"the engines of history." (67)
(2)
The Engines of History: "the engines:
science and technology"; "the engines:
social and psychological"; "chaos and
compexity theory"; "where are they taking
us?"
(3)
A Human Resources Economy: "a new
kind of economy"; "the reorganization of
work"; "conflict in the knowledge
era".
(4)
An Era of Global Tribes: "the process of
globalization"; "tribalism, fragmentation,
and pluralism"; "tribalism without
globalism."
(5) A
Transformation of Authority: "phase one: the
decline of hierarchical authorities";
"implications: social instability and a
political crisis"; "phase two: the rise of
new authorities." "The explosion of
interest in privatization…appears as not merely
the collapse of authority: it is the rise of
alternative authorities more efficient than
government." (220) "…the
gloriously empowering trends of the knowledge era
also risk alienation and psychological
overload." (233)
(6) A
Test of Human Psychology: "'in over
our heads'": postmodern life and human
psychology"; "a habit of alienation";
"the 'pessimism syndrome'".
"…virtually every trend…ponts to an
increasing emphasis on individual responsibility."
(275)
Toward
a New Society (last chapter): Knowledge and
responsibility "each relies on the other to
realize its full potential….the knowledge era is
correspondingly an 'era of responsibility,' for
individuals and societies alike." ( 281)
COMMENT:
Mazarr's check lists help us describe the change from
simple (high) modernity to postmodernity (or
reflexive modernization). He usefully describes
the shift from hierarchical authorities such as
government to centers of power, including the
individual, that do not depend on
megastructures. Information technology of
course is an empowering feature of that shift.
His emphasis on individual responsibility resonates
with the prevailing neoconservative mood against
traditional governmental roles in America (except the
military agenda). Indeed, he seems to be
on target when he forecasts the decline of the
classic left-right political distinction and points
to the need for a new set of values that will
redefine political responsibility. Like most
pre-9-11 books on globalization, this one appears to
have missed the high degree of international stress
that would come from globalization. Yet,
his emphasis on global interconnectedness remains
central to our understanding of what is going on.
Mazarr
sets up an interesting tension in his vision of
global trends. On one hand, he emphasizes
fragmentation and multiplicity. On the other
hand, he seizes on chaos theory and process analysis
to point toward holistic solutions. The best
holistic vision attainable, perhaps, is to
acknowledge that the whole global process will not
yield to a single explanation--or that there is no
whole global process. In the end, perhaps this
imposes a modesty that will push against imperialist
impulses currently on the minds of many as they watch
America in action.
